Kawasaki Konjecture, June 1

1 06 2009

Every two weeks, I post the top ten ranked pitchers over the two-week period, in order to test the theory that in fantasy baseball, drafted starting pitchers have little added value over starters added off the waiver wire.

This week’s top ten pitchers, from Baseball Monster, looking at Wins, Strikeouts, ERA and WHIP:

  • Early draft picks: Jake Peavy, Tim Lincecum, C.C. Sabathia, (Matt Cain)
  • Late draft picks: Chris Carpenter, Justin Verlander
  • Undrafted: Jason Marquis, Clayton Richard, Edwin Jackson, Phil Hughes

Matt Cain is bracketed because he was an early-middle pick.  Compiling the results from the first four two-week periods of baseball season, I find that of the forty pitchers to appear in the top ten, fourteen are early draft picks, fourteen are late draft picks, twelve went undrafted and two are relief pitchers.

In both our leagues, Hurricane and I spent very few resources on starting pitching–no keeper spots, nothing earlier than a tenth round pick.  In both our leagues, we’re a little ahead of average in the four categories where starters compete, currently holding 24 of 40 and 32 of 56 total possible points.

I’m not sure how much support/opposition either of these analyses give to the Kawasaki Konjecture.  I’ll try to post a few more tests over the next few days.

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Kawasaki Konjecture, May 18

18 05 2009

Every two weeks, I post the top ten ranked pitchers over the two-week period, in order to test the theory that in fantasy baseball, drafted starting pitchers have little added value over starters added off the waiver wire.

This week’s top ten, from Baseball Monster:

  • Early draft picks: Roy Halladay, C.C. Sabathaia, Jake Peavy
  • Late draft picks: Justin Verlander, Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke
  • Undrafted: Matt Harrison, Rick Porcello, Jered Weaver, Wandy Rodriguez

Read the rest of this entry »





Kawasaki Konjecture, May 4

4 05 2009

Every two weeks, I post the top ten ranked pitchers over the two-week period, in order to test the theory that in fantasy baseball, drafted starting pitchers have little added value over starters added off the waiver wire.

Here are the top 10 pitchers over the last two weeks, according to Baseball Monster, based on wins, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP:

  • Clay Condrey (RP)
  • Yovani Gallardo
  • Zack Greinke (his second appearance on this list)
  • Dan Haren
  • Felix Hernandez
  • Randy Johnson
  • Tim Lincecum
  • Ross Ohlendorf
  • Javier Vazquez
  • Edinson Volquez

Of these, four were early draft picks, four were late picks, and two went undrafted.





Kawasaki Konjecture Apr. 22

22 04 2009

 

Kyle Lohse

Every two weeks, I post the top ten ranked pitchers over the two-week period, in order to test the theory that in fantasy baseball, drafted starting pitchers have little added value over starters added off the waiver wire.

Using baseball monster, I determined value for pitchers based on four categories: wins, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP.  Here are this week’s top ten:

  • Zack Greinke
  • Johan Santana
  • Chad Billingsley
  • Kevin Millwood
  • Roy Halladay
  • Andrew Bailey (RP)
  • Josh Johnson
  • Armando Galarraga
  • Kyle Lohse
  • Erik Bedard

I’ll have analysis in future posts.  For now, all I’ll say is that three of the top ten were early draft picks, three were mid-late draft picks, and four went undrafted.





Early Support for the Kawasaki Konjecture

8 04 2009

While most teams spent the opening days of fantasy baseball season starting the aces they drafted early, here’s the ragtag group of schlumps that my co-manager Hurricane Kawasaki started for our two teams, with the results:

  • Joe Saunders vs. Oak: 6.2IP, W, 2 Ks, 0 ERA, 0.75 WHIP
  • Jeremy Guthrie vs. NYY: 6IP, W, 3 Ks, 4.5 ERA, 1.67 WHIP
  • Jair Jurrjens @ Phi: 5.2 IP, W, 2 Ks, 0 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
  • David Purcey vs. Det: 7 IP, 5 Ks, 2.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
  • Ubaldo Jimenez @ Ari: 7 IP, W, 8 Ks, 0 ERA, 1 WHIP
  • Trevor Cahill @ LAA: 5 IP, 1 K, 3.6 ERA, 2 WHIP Read the rest of this entry »




Draft Day Secrets Revealed–Kawasaki Konjecture

27 03 2009

The Kawasaki Konjecture, which I mentioned earlier, is a theory of starting pitching in fantasy baseball, which I’m attributing to my long-time co-manager Hurricane Kawasaki.

Hurricane summarizes in an email: Read the rest of this entry »





Draft Day Secrets Revealed–The Model

25 03 2009

For years I’ve alluded to a mysterious fantasy sports model in conversations with my friends.  Today I reveal how I build it.  I’ve found the model to work very well for fantasy basketball and hockey, decently for baseball–although I don’t use it for pitching because of the Kawasaki Konjecture–and terrible for football.

Read the rest of this entry »