Upside, Downside, and Everything in Between

15 05 2009

I play in a fantasy baseball keeper league where the first three rounds of draft picks cannot be kept.  As a result, early fourth round picks are very valuable, since they’re the first players available to be kept.  Keepers can span four years, so if you draft someone after the third round, or add him off waivers, you can keep him up to three times.  Most people use these early picks on high-upside players, who might not immediately put up great numbers, but are likely to contribute down the road.  I chose a slightly different tactic, making a somewhat safe pick, that may have much more upside than anyone thought. Read the rest of this entry »


The Curious Case of Geovany Soto

28 04 2009

I’m not a projections guy.  I’ve never tried to design a formal projections system and when I try to make speculative predictions, they usually look ridiculous.  I have a rough sense of the math behind PECOTA, and a pretty good sense of how seat of your pants BS works, but I’ve never worked on designing a projections system.  My specialty has been to take a projection system and use it to valuate players, which I’ve done pretty effectively, even without using a good projection system.  (My initial method was to assume stats will remain the same as last year’s.) Read the rest of this entry »