The Curious Case of Geovany Soto

28 04 2009

I’m not a projections guy.  I’ve never tried to design a formal projections system and when I try to make speculative predictions, they usually look ridiculous.  I have a rough sense of the math behind PECOTA, and a pretty good sense of how seat of your pants BS works, but I’ve never worked on designing a projections system.  My specialty has been to take a projection system and use it to valuate players, which I’ve done pretty effectively, even without using a good projection system.  (My initial method was to assume stats will remain the same as last year’s.) Read the rest of this entry »

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Need Advice for Upcoming Fantasy Draft

12 09 2008

My co-blogger isn’t writing any posts right now, because he’s planning his wedding, so I figured it’s a good time to ask him for some advice for my upcoming fantasy wedding draft.  I’m targeting certain people for some positions, but others I have no idea.  Here’s a breakdown:

Groom: Me (obviously)

Bride: It’s a 16-team league, and I’m the only guy, so usually I can wait till the end to fill this spot.  Last year, however, the one bisexual girl beat me to Natalie Portman, so I had to settle for Claire Danes.  Doh!  Hopefully this year Portman will slip to me late…it’s just not worth wasting a pick on a bride when everyone else is locking in key players in the other positions.

Groom’s parents: Last year I had Tommy Lee Jones and Nancy Pelosi, which was pretty decent, but I’m looking to upgrade in this position.  If Bill Cosby is still around in the second round, I’m probably picking him, though I might use him as father of the bride also.  I’m also intriged by the idea, recently pitched by the Stupendous Mr. Roto, about using Bono in this spot.

Bride’s parents: My top choices would be Obama and Meryl Streep, but chances are they’ll both be gone by my frist pick. (I pick 16th and then 25th)  I really like Bo Jackson as a sleeper.  Bo knows lots of cool people, so I’ll pick up a lot of guest list points here, although my media buzz may be down a little compared to some other choices.

Best Man: I’d be really happy with Matt Damon, except that he probably gets picked as a groom early on.  I remember back in 1998, a year after Good Will Hunting, Ben Affleck went in the second round, but Damon became my best man in the seventh!  Since then, Affleck’s been falling (Funston’s Big Board has him on the bubble) while Damon’s gone straight to the top (13 on the Big Board).  It’s fair to say I won’t be picking Affleck–I’d sooner take his brother Casey–but I’m not really sure who to target.  Is Will Smith still a good choice?

Entertainment: This pick is already deciced.  Every year I pick Jimmie Moore, my entire league derides me, other teams draft crappy DJs, and I do just fine.  Let me ask one simple question: Can your DJ move like this?

Drunken Relative/Black Sheep: Our league requires you to play at least one, but you can rack up major bonus points for playing extras in your utility spots.  I’m toying with the idea of inviting the disaster trio of Hilton, Spears and Lohan.  I’ve never heard of anyone trying an idea this crazy, but really…what’s the worst that can happen?

Photographer: No idea…I always just pick by the highest rating, but I lose a lot of points here.  I’m completely lost as to how to match a photographer to a guest list.

Menu option: Okay, this one always kills me.  Assuming that beef, chicken, fish and vegetarian go early, what do I do?  Seafood seems really risky.  What comes next?  Lamb stew?  Pork Tenderloin?  Meatloaf?  Vegan?  Assuming I don’t get one of my top four, I’d be tempted to just skip dinner and draft two desserts.

Any advice would be really appreciated.  Last year I finished 15th out of 16.





ESPN.com fantasy basketball preview

11 09 2008

ESPN has their fantasy basketball draft kit live.  They have two pretty good articles, one on rookies and the other on coaching changes.  Berry’s draft-day manifesto manages to be both atrocious and exactly the same as last year’s, which is fine, whatever…  Go on, Incredible Mr. Roto, spread your weird ideas; I’ll just keep on crushing your readers.  I also like this article, which focuses on players that you probably shouldn’t have on your team, but also included some players that you do want to have on your team.  If that description is confusing, then you understand how I feel about the article.

Then there are the rankings.  Just like Funston’s big board, none of the experts give any methodology or justfication for their rankings, it’s just a big dump of “here’s who I think is good.”  And speaking of big dumps, I’d like to take one on all these rankings, because they’re really bad.  Which is what happens when you design rankings without any methodology or justification.  I’m not gonna criticize any of the rankings specifically (Dwyane Wade at #5, really?  Has he ever had a top 10 fantasy season?  Top 25?) because I haven’t done my homework yet (Jason Kidd #40, isn’t he like, dead?) but at some point I’ll build a model (Yao Ming at #29, yup that’s a good pick) and then use it to dominate drafts.