Kawasaki Konjecture, June 1

1 06 2009

Every two weeks, I post the top ten ranked pitchers over the two-week period, in order to test the theory that in fantasy baseball, drafted starting pitchers have little added value over starters added off the waiver wire.

This week’s top ten pitchers, from Baseball Monster, looking at Wins, Strikeouts, ERA and WHIP:

  • Early draft picks: Jake Peavy, Tim Lincecum, C.C. Sabathia, (Matt Cain)
  • Late draft picks: Chris Carpenter, Justin Verlander
  • Undrafted: Jason Marquis, Clayton Richard, Edwin Jackson, Phil Hughes

Matt Cain is bracketed because he was an early-middle pick.  Compiling the results from the first four two-week periods of baseball season, I find that of the forty pitchers to appear in the top ten, fourteen are early draft picks, fourteen are late draft picks, twelve went undrafted and two are relief pitchers.

In both our leagues, Hurricane and I spent very few resources on starting pitching–no keeper spots, nothing earlier than a tenth round pick.  In both our leagues, we’re a little ahead of average in the four categories where starters compete, currently holding 24 of 40 and 32 of 56 total possible points.

I’m not sure how much support/opposition either of these analyses give to the Kawasaki Konjecture.  I’ll try to post a few more tests over the next few days.




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