Early Support for the Kawasaki Konjecture

8 04 2009

While most teams spent the opening days of fantasy baseball season starting the aces they drafted early, here’s the ragtag group of schlumps that my co-manager Hurricane Kawasaki started for our two teams, with the results:

  • Joe Saunders vs. Oak: 6.2IP, W, 2 Ks, 0 ERA, 0.75 WHIP
  • Jeremy Guthrie vs. NYY: 6IP, W, 3 Ks, 4.5 ERA, 1.67 WHIP
  • Jair Jurrjens @ Phi: 5.2 IP, W, 2 Ks, 0 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
  • David Purcey vs. Det: 7 IP, 5 Ks, 2.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
  • Ubaldo Jimenez @ Ari: 7 IP, W, 8 Ks, 0 ERA, 1 WHIP
  • Trevor Cahill @ LAA: 5 IP, 1 K, 3.6 ERA, 2 WHIP

This is a very small sample size, and Guthrie and Cahill’s starts weren’t exactly fantastic.  But given that I’d only heard of one of these pitchers, and that 4 of them came off the wire and 2 (Jurrjens, Saunders) from mid-round draft picks, I’d say the combined line of 6 starts, 37.1 IP, 4 W, 21 Ks, 1.69 ERA, 1.26 WHIP is pretty outstanding.

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3 responses

8 04 2009
jordanho

Is this any different than streaming?

9 04 2009
Ben

Most proponents of streaming see it as one component of a pitching strategy. They don’t advocate not drafting starters, or drafting them very sparingly. That’s what the Hurricane’s position is. He thinks that the value of a starter drafted in the mid-rounds is only marginally higher than a starter picked up off waivers.

Also, streaming isn’t the only strategy available to the Hurricane; rather than constantly adding and dropping (streaming), he can add pitchers off waivers and, if they pitch well, hold on to them.

I’m gonna write posts at two week intervals during the season with some (somewhat) hard analysis to help test whether the Kawasaki Konjecture holds up, and if so, why.

9 04 2009
Ben

Also worth noting, the day I wrote this post, Hurricane slotted in some starters who pitched pretty atrociously.

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