fantasy basketball preview

11 09 2008

ESPN has their fantasy basketball draft kit live.  They have two pretty good articles, one on rookies and the other on coaching changes.  Berry’s draft-day manifesto manages to be both atrocious and exactly the same as last year’s, which is fine, whatever…  Go on, Incredible Mr. Roto, spread your weird ideas; I’ll just keep on crushing your readers.  I also like this article, which focuses on players that you probably shouldn’t have on your team, but also included some players that you do want to have on your team.  If that description is confusing, then you understand how I feel about the article.

Then there are the rankings.  Just like Funston’s big board, none of the experts give any methodology or justfication for their rankings, it’s just a big dump of “here’s who I think is good.”  And speaking of big dumps, I’d like to take one on all these rankings, because they’re really bad.  Which is what happens when you design rankings without any methodology or justification.  I’m not gonna criticize any of the rankings specifically (Dwyane Wade at #5, really?  Has he ever had a top 10 fantasy season?  Top 25?) because I haven’t done my homework yet (Jason Kidd #40, isn’t he like, dead?) but at some point I’ll build a model (Yao Ming at #29, yup that’s a good pick) and then use it to dominate drafts.




3 responses

15 09 2008

systematic thinking? come on, that’s against the american way. especially amongst sports writers. these are the same guys who always write articles about a pitcher whose won 13 of his last 14 starts… and 13 of his last 15… and 13 of his last 16.

maybe they’re just crushing their own fantasy leagues against people using their picks 🙂

22 09 2008
Yahoo! Mock Draft « you like a da juice?

[…] basketball mock draft from back in July and it seems considerably better than the ESPN draft kit I linked to earlier.  Looks like the secret’s out on Marcus Camby and Caron Butler, two huge-value guys […]

28 04 2009
The Curious Case of Geovany Soto « you like a da juice?

[…] to design a formal projections system and when I try to make speculative predictions, they usually look ridiculous.  I have a rough sense of the math behind PECOTA, and a pretty good sense of how seat of your […]

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