Upside, Downside, and Everything in Between

I play in a fantasy baseball keeper league where the first three rounds of draft picks cannot be kept.  As a result, early fourth round picks are very valuable, since they’re the first players available to be kept.  Keepers can span four years, so if you draft someone after the third round, or add him off waivers, you can keep him up to three times.  Most people use these early picks on high-upside players, who might not immediately put up great numbers, but are likely to contribute down the road.  I chose a slightly different tactic, making a somewhat safe pick, that may have much more upside than anyone thought.

Two beers and a dozen Victorino jokes later…

My fantasy baseball season has begun.  Downed a couple beers, fired up this year’s version of The Model and my co-manager’s notes and entered the draft room.